Where Will China’s Economy Go in 2024?

China’s economy is infused into every aspect of the U.S.-China relationship. With tighter U.S. export controls on chips, new technology developments in China, a slowdown in consumer activity, rising electric vehicle competition, and prickly government relations, the Chinese and American economies were inextricably linked in 2023. What will happen in 2024 as the U.S. presidential election brings more uncertainty to U.S.-China relations? Understanding where China’s macroeconomic trends are heading – and how they may affect American consumers – is crucial to managing other areas of the bilateral relationship.

Economists are split on whether the Chinese economy is stable or on the edge of a debt crisis. In this program on March 14, 2024, National Committee President Stephen Orlins joins Amy Celico and Barry Naughton to help make sense of different economic and policy projections for China’s economy in 2024 (and beyond).

Speakers

Amy Celico

Amy Celico is a principal of Albright Stonebridge Group, part of Dentons Global Advisors, where she leads the firm’s China team in Washington, D.C. With over 25 years of experience working on China issues, Ms. Celico helps clients develop and implement strategies to deepen relationships with stakeholders, resolve complex problems, and expand their business in the China market. Prior to her current role, she served as senior director for China Affairs at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative; deputy director of the Office of the Chinese Economic Area at the Department of Commerce; and as a diplomat in Beijing and Shanghai with the Departments of State and Commerce. Amy earned a B.A. from Mount Holyoke College and a M.A. from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. She a director of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations.

Barry Naughton

Dr. Barry Naughton is a professor of economics at the University of California, San Diego, and a long-term analyst of Chinese economic policy. His comprehensive study, The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth, published by MIT Press in 2007, has been translated into Chinese and Korean. His first book, Growing Out of the Plan: Chinese Economic Reform, 1978-1993 (Cambridge University Press, 1995) won the Masayoshi Ohira Memorial Prize. Dr. Naughton publishes extensively in top economics and social science journals. Dr. Naughton’s most recent book is The Rise of Chinese Industrial Policy, 1978-2020 (2021). Dr. Naughton received his Ph.D. in economics from Yale University in 1986. He was named the So Kwanlok Professor at the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies of the University of California at San Diego in 1998. He has consulted extensively for the World Bank, as well as for corporate clients.