Forecast of China’s Economy for 2017

Keynote Speakers: 

 

Justin Yifu Lin, Director, Center for New Strucutural Economics, Peking University (PKU)

Dr. Justin Yifu Lin is professor and honorary dean of the National School of Development at Peking University.  He was the senior vice president and chief economist at the World Bank from 2008 to 2012.  In this position, Mr. Lin guided the Bank’s intellectual leadership and played a key role in shaping the economic research agenda of the institution.

Prior to joining the Bank, Mr. Lin served for 15 years as founding director and professor of the China Center for Economic Research (CCER) at Peking University and is the author of 23 books including The Quest for Prosperity: How Developing Economies Can Take Off; New Structural Economics: A Framework for Rethinking Development and Policy; Demystifying the Chinese Economy; Benti and Changwu: Dialogues on Methodology in Economics; and Economic Development and Transition: Thought, Strategy, and Viability. 

He is a deputy of China’s National People’s Congress and vice chairman of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce and serves on several national and international committees, leading groups, and councils on development policy, technology, and environment, including the International Food Policy Research Institute Steering Committee, UN Millennium Task Force on Hunger, Eminent Persons Group of the Asian Development Bank, Global Agenda Council on the International Monetary System, Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee, and the Hong Kong-U.S. Business Council.  He is a corresponding fellow of the British Academy and a fellow of the Academy of Sciences for the Developing World.

 

Qin Xiao, Former Chariman, China Merchants Group and China Merchants Bank

Dr. Qin Xiao is the former chairman of China Merchants Group and China Merchants Bank.  He is an independent non-executive director of AIA Group Limited, China Telecom, HKR International Ltd. and China World Trade Center Co. Ltd.  He is also a guest professor at the School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua University and the Graduate School of the People’s Bank of China. 

Dr. Qin was president and vice chairman of China International Trust and Investment Corporation (CITIC), and chairman of CITIC Industrial Bank.  He served as chairman of APEC Business Advisory Council for the year 2001.  His papers and books on economics, management and social transformation have been published in China and abroad.

Dr. Qin’s Ph.D. in economics is from Cambridge University.

Moderators: 

 

Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, Chief International Correspondent, CNBC

Michelle Caruso-Cabrera is CNBC’s chief international correspondent and co-anchor of “Power Lunch,” which airs Monday through Friday from 1 to 3pm ET.

In 2016, she reported live from Iran on the state of the economy and potential investment opportunities in the country, despite continuing U.S. sanctions. Caruso-Cabrera also traveled to Brazil to cover the effect of the Car Wash scandal on Petrobras.

Latin America is a large focus of her coverage as trade has become a key election issue, particularly when it comes to Mexico. Previously, Caruso-Cabrera has done extensive reporting on Mexico’s efforts to modernize PEMEX and has interviewed dozens of Mexican business executives, CEOs and government officials. She also covered Venezuela during the PDVSA strike.

Additionally, she has reported from Cuba more than half a dozen times as relations between the U.S. and Cuba have thawed.

Since 2010, she has covered the European financial crisis, reporting live from Athens, Rome, Frankfurt, Madrid, Brussels, Luxembourg and Cyprus. In the summer of 2015, she spent a full month in Greece.

Caruso-Cabrera joined CNBC in 1998 from WTSP-TV in St. Petersburg, Fla., where she spent four years as a general assignment reporter covering crime and hurricanes. Prior to that, she was a special projects producer for Univision where she gained experience covering Latin America. She began her career in 1990 while in college, as a stringer for The New York Times, reporting for the education section.

Caruso-Cabrera has reported one-hour documentaries for the network, including “Liquid Assets: The Big Business of Water” and “The Race to Rebuild: America’s Infrastructure.”

Caruso-Cabrera wrote her first book, “You Know I’m Right: More Prosperity, Less Government,” in 2010. Previously, she wrote a personal finance column for Shape en Español and People en Español.

She has also been awarded Broadcaster of the Year from the National Association of Hispanic Journalists and was named one of the “100 Most Influential Hispanics” in the country by Hispanic Business magazine. She earned a bachelor’s degree in economics from Wellesley College.

 

Stephen A. Orlins, President, National Committee on U.S.-China Relations

Stephen Orlins has been president of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations since May 2005.  Prior to that, Mr. Orlins was the managing director of Carlyle Asia and the chairman of the board of Taiwan Broadband Communications, one of Taiwan’s largest cable television and high speed internet providers.  Prior to joining Carlyle, he was a senior advisor to AEA Investors Inc., a New York based leveraged buyout firm, with responsibility for AEA’s business activities throughout Asia.

From 1983 to 1991, Mr. Orlins was with the investment banking firm of Lehman Brothers where he was a managing director from 1985 to 1991.  From 1987 to 1990, he served as president of Lehman Brothers Asia.  Based in Hong Kong, he supervised over 150 professionals with offices in Hong Kong, Korea, China, Taiwan, Thailand, Manila and Singapore.  Prior to joining Lehman Brothers, Mr. Orlins practiced law with Coudert Brothers and Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison in New York, Hong Kong and Beijing.

From 1976 to 1979, Mr. Orlins served in the Office of the Legal Advisor of the United States Department of State, first in the Office of the Assistant Legal Advisor for Political-Military Affairs and then for East Asian and Pacific Affairs.  While in that office, he was a member of the legal team that helped establish diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China.

Mr. Orlins is a magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College and earned his law degree at Harvard Law School.  He speaks Mandarin Chinese and is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. 

In 1992, Mr. Orlins was the Democratic nominee for the United States Congress in New York’s Third Congressional District.

 

Yao Yang,  Dean, National School of Development (NSD); Director, CCER, PKU

Dr. Yao Yang is a professor at the China Center for Economic Research (CCER) and the National School of Development (NSD) – both at Peking University.  He currently serves as the director of CCER and dean of NSD.  His research interests include economic transition and development in China.  He has published widely in international and domestic journals, as well as several sole-authored and co-authored books on institutional economics and economic development in China, including Ownership Transformation in China (co-author, World Bank, 2005); Globalization and Economic Growth in China (co-editor, World Scientific, 2006); and CSR and Competitiveness in China (co-author, Foreign Languages Press, 2009).  He is an associate editor of Agricultural Economics and serves on the editorial boards of several domestic and international journals.  He is also a prolific writer for magazines and newspapers.

Dr. Yao was awarded the 2009 Sun Yefang Economics Award – the highest economics award in China, the 2008 Pu Shan Award in International Economics and the 2008 Zhang Peigang Award in Development Economics.  He was awarded the title of Best Teacher by the Peking University Student Union in 2006 and was named a Young Leader by the Nanfang People’s Weekly in 2008.

Professor Yao obtained his B.S. in geography in 1986 and his M.S. in economics in 1989, both from Peking University; his 1996 Ph.D. in agricultural and applied economics is from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Speakers: 

 

​Huang Haizhou, Managing Director, China International Capital Corporation

Dr. Huang is managing director of China International Capital Corporation (CICC).

He has over sixteen years of experience in conducting research at market, policy and academic institutions, and serving clients in the financial industry.  Before joining CICC, he was head of Greater China research at Barclays Capital from 2005 to 2007, in charge of macro and related strategy research.  From 1998 to 2005, he was an economist/senior economist at the International Monetary Fund’s Monetary and Exchange Affairs, European, and Research Departments.  Before that, he taught and conducted research at the Chinese University of Hong Kong and the London School of Economics. 

Dr. Huang has over twenty publications in leading academic and policy journals, including American Economic Review, China Economic Review, European Economic Review, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Money and Banking, Journal of Monetary Economics, as well as numerous publications in leading Chinese academic and policy journals.

He holds a Ph.D. degree in business from Indiana University, and a masters and bachelors degree, both in engineering, from China.

 

Huang Yiping, Professor and Deputy Dean, NSD, PKU

Dr. Huang Yiping is professor of economics and deputy dean at the National School of Development and Director of Institute of Internet Finance, Peking University.  His research focuses mainly on macroeconomic policy, financial reform and international finance.  He is the Rio Tinto Adjunct Professor in the Chinese Economy at the Australian National University, a member of the China Finance 40 Forum and a member of the Chinese Economists 50 Forum.  He is also editor of China Economic Journal and an associate editor of Asian Economic Policy Review.  Currently he is an independent director of China Life Insurance Company Limited. 

Previously, Dr. Huang was a policy analyst at the Research Center for Rural Development of the State Council, senior lecturer of economics at the Australian National University, General Mills International Visiting Professor of Economics and Finance at the Columbia Business School, managing dchief Asia economist for Citigroup, chief economist for Caixin Media Group, and managing director and chief economist for Emerging Asia for Barclays.

He received his Ph.D. in economics from the Australian National University.

 

Nicholas R. Lardy, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics

Nicholas Lardy is a senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics (IIE) in Washington, D.C. 

He came to IIE in March 2003 from the Brookings Institution, where he was a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Studies Program from 1995 until 2003 and served as interim director of Foreign Policy Studies in 2001.  Prior to his work at Brookings, Dr. Lardy served at the University of Washington, where he was the director of the Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies from 1991-1995.  From 1997 through the spring of 2000, he was also the Frederick Frank Adjunct Professor of International Trade and Finance at the Yale University School of Management.  He is an expert on Asia, particularly on the Chinese economy.

Dr. Lardy became a professor of international studies at the University of Washington in 1985, serving as an associate professor from 1983 to 1985.  He served as chair of the China Program from 1984-1989.  He was an assistant and associate professor of economics at Yale University from 1975 to1983.

Dr. Lardy has written numerous articles and books on the Chinese economy, the most recent of which are The Future of China’s Exchange Rate Policy (2009), China’s Rise: Challenges and Opportunities (2008) and China: The Balance Sheet: What the World Needs to Know About the Emerging Superpower (2006), to which he contributed chapters on China’s domestic economy and China in the world economy.  In 2004, he coauthored Prospects for a U.S.-Taiwan Free Trade Agreement with Daniel Rosen (2004).  His previous book, Integrating China into the Global Economy, published in January 2002, explores whether reforms of China’s economy and its foreign trade and exchange rate systems following China’s WTO entry will integrate it much more deeply into the world economy.  In September 1998, he published China’s Unfinished Economic Revolution, a study that evaluates the reform of China’s banking system and measures the economic consequences of deferring reform in the state-owned sector.  Some of his other publications include: Debating China’s Exchange Rate Policy (2008); “China: Toward a Consumption-Driven Growth Path” (Peterson Institute for International Economics Policy Brief 06-6, October 2006); “China’s Role in the Revived Bretton Woods System: A Case of Mistaken Identity with Morris Goldstein” (Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper 05-2, March 2005); “What Kind of Landing for the Chinese Economy?” with Morris Goldstein (Policy Brief 04-7, 2004); “China and the Asian Contagion,” Foreign Affairs 77, 4 (July/August 1998); “The Role of Foreign Trade and Investment in China’s Economic Transformation,” The China Quarterly, no. 144 (December 1995); China in the World Economy (1994); “Chinese Foreign Trade,” The China Quarterly, no. 131 (September 1992); Foreign Trade and Economic Reform in China, 1978–1990 (Cambridge University Press, 1992, paperback, 1993); Agriculture in China’s Modern Economic Development (Cambridge University Press, 1983) and Economic Growth and Distribution in China (Cambridge University Press, 1978).

Dr. Lardy serves on the board of directors and executive committee of the National Committee on United States-China Relations, is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a member of the editorial boards of The China Quarterly, Journal of Asian Business, China Review and China Economic Review.

He received his B.A. from the University of Wisconsin in 1968 and his Ph.D. from the University of Michigan in 1975, both in economics.

 

Lu Feng, Professor, NSD; Director, China Macroeconomic Research Center, PKU

Professor Lu Feng is a professor at the National School of Development and director of the China Macroeconomic Research Center at Peking University.  He publishes extensively on China’s macroeconomy, including exchange rate policy, external imbalance, inflation, capital return, food security and food trade.  His analysis on these issues has been widely reported by the Chinese media.

Professor Lu coordinates a quarterly conference, “China Center for Economic Research China Economic Observer,” that provides the most cutting edge information regarding China’s macroeconomic situation and a long-run forecast based on integrated projections of China’s macroeconomic variables by leading Chinese-based research institutions.

He has been a research fellow at Harvard University, Australian National University, and the Institute of Development Studies in the United Kingdom.  Professor Lu obtained his Ph.D. from Leeds University in 1994.

 

Daniel H. Rosen, Founder, China Practice Leader, Rhodium Group

 

Daniel H. Rosen is a founding Partner of the Rhodium Group (RHG), and leads the firm’s work on China and the world economy. RHG combines policy experience, quantitative economic tools and on-the-ground research to analyze disruptive global trends. Mr. Rosen’s focus includes US-China policy dynamics, interpretation of Chinese economic performance indicators, and assessment of long-term Chinese reform and policy directions. RHG’s China research contributes to corporate strategy and planning, investment management, and political risk assessment of China and its global interactions.

Mr. Rosen is an Adjunct Associate Professor at Columbia University, where he has taught a graduate seminar on the Chinese economy at the School of International and Public Affairs since 2001. He is affiliated with a number of preeminent American think tanks focused on international economics. Since 1992, he has authored more than a dozen major books and reports on aspects of China’s economic and commercial development.

From 2000-2001, Mr. Rosen was Senior Advisor for International Economic Policy at the White House National Economic Council and National Security Council, where he played a key role in completing China’s accession to the World Trade Organization and accompanied the President to Asia for summits and state visits.

Mr. Rosen is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and serves on the board of the National Committee on US-China Relations.

 

Xu Gao, Chief Economist, China Everbright Securities Co., Ltd.

Dr. Xu Gao is chief economist of China Everbright Securities Co. Ltd, and a part-time research fellow of the National School of Development at Peking University.  He is also a member of the China Chief Economist Forum and a column writer for Wall Street Journal and Caixin.  Before joining Everbright Securities, he worked at UBS as a senior economist.  Prior to that, he was an economist with the World Bank.  Dr. Xu also spent two years with the IMF, first as a research assistant and then as a part-time economist.  He holds a Ph.D. in economics from Peking University, and a B.A. and M.A. in engineering from Southwest Jiaotong University.

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